Overview
- Bitcoin has rebounded about 45% from its recent low, but overall liquidity has not recovered significantly.
- The 90-day moving average of cumulative volume delta (CVD) remains in neutral territory, and spot buying remains weak.
- Binance stablecoin reserves increased by about $1.6 billion over the past month (about 244.8 billion yen at 153 yen per dollar), but the recovery remains limited.
- The daily RSI has risen to 67, and the 7-day and 21-day EMAs have crossed above the 200-day moving average for the first time in about 10 months, signaling technical strength.
- Analysts believe that a decisive move above $80,000 is key to a real return of market liquidity.
Weak spot demand, futures buying dominant
CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost posted an analysis of Bitcoin’s market conditions on X (formerly Twitter) on the 10th. He noted that although the price has rebounded about 45% from its recent low, overall market liquidity remains low.
The lack of spot-side buying is particularly evident. The 90-day moving average of cumulative volume delta (CVD) is still hovering around neutral levels, suggesting that while futures markets are dominated by buying pressure, spot market capital inflows have not expanded in sync.
Binance stablecoin reserves: improving but not yet a trend
Weak liquidity is also reflected in exchange stablecoin reserves. Binance stablecoin reserves exceeded $50 billion (about 7.65 trillion yen) at the peak of this cycle, but began declining from October last year, with outflows of about $7 billion during that period.
Darkfost said the 90-day change rate of Binance stablecoin reserves once fell to -17%, but has recently recovered to -1.6%. At the same time, reserves increased by about $1.6 billion (about 244.8 billion yen) over the past month. This can be seen as a short-term positive signal, but it still lacks sufficient momentum and remains far from a full recovery.
Technicals strengthen, $80,000 is key
On the technical front, bullish signals are clearer. The daily relative strength index (RSI) has climbed to 67, while the 7-day and 21-day exponential moving averages (EMA) have crossed back above the 200-day moving average after about 10 months.
Darkfost believes that if Bitcoin can break cleanly above $80,000, it will help market liquidity truly return; otherwise, the short term may continue to be dominated by range-bound trading.
Source and editorial note
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