Key Takeaways
- Nvidia is reportedly in talks to invest up to $10 billion in Anthropic's IPO as an anchor investor.
- Anthropic is targeting $100 billion raised and a valuation near $2 trillion, which would surpass the IPO record held by SpaceX if achieved.
- Multiple crypto trading platforms have listed Anthropic pre-IPO perpetual contracts, implying a valuation of about $1.94 trillion.
- Prediction market Polymarket shows around a 90% probability that the IPO will be completed by year-end.
Detailed Breakdown
According to Reuters, Nvidia is in talks to participate in Anthropic's closely watched initial public offering, planning to subscribe for up to $10 billion as an anchor investor. The capital would help the artificial intelligence company pursue the largest stock issuance in history. However, the $100 billion offering size and roughly $2 trillion valuation sought by Anthropic have not been confirmed by any party at the company.
To break SpaceX's record, Anthropic would need to surpass it in both offering size and valuation. SpaceX set the record in June of this year, when it raised $75 billion at a valuation of about $1.8 trillion; its shares closed up 19% from the offer price on the first day of trading, making it one of the highest-returning IPOs in history. If Anthropic prices at the reported $100 billion raised and $2 trillion valuation, it would refresh both figures. The challenge lies in pricing itself: anchor investors need to lock in large share blocks before the listing, and this early order signals to other buyers that the current price is credible.
Nvidia's $10 billion subscription would be roughly one-tenth of the offering target. The chipmaker made a commitment of the same size in November 2025 and guaranteed $105 billion in AI data center leases. In addition, Nvidia's participation would provide extra confidence for the issuance.
Market traders have already priced Anthropic with real money in advance. Nineteen exchanges currently offer Anthropic pre-IPO perpetual contracts, allowing traders to bet on its value before the company officially lists. CoinGecko data shows that in early September, the average implied valuation of these contracts was about $1.94 trillion, already above the $1.8 trillion at which SpaceX priced.
On event prediction platforms such as Polymarket, users can also bet on when the IPO will be completed. Currently, traders on that platform assign a 67% probability to Anthropic's IPO being completed before October 31, rising to 85% by November 15 and 90% by year-end, with related trading volume of about $2.89 million. In other words, the market broadly expects the record to be rewritten, but not necessarily before the midterm elections.
On the process side, Anthropic confidentially filed for an IPO in June, but has not yet published a prospectus.
From a broader perspective, trading demand for pre-IPO equity is heating up, and some crypto platforms are using perpetual contracts and similar instruments to let users participate in price discovery early. These products intersect with trends around tokenized stocks and real-world assets (RWA) on-chain: investors can map and trade the value of unlisted companies on-chain ahead of time. However, such products also face risks in compliance, liquidity, and custody transparency, so users should carefully understand contract mechanics and redemption arrangements before participating.
Summary
If Nvidia's $10 billion anchor order materializes, it would be a significant driver in Anthropic's bid to break SpaceX's record. However, the offering size, valuation, and listing timing still remain uncertain until the prospectus is formally disclosed. Traders have already assigned a high completion probability, but pricing and regulatory approval remain key variables.
Sources and Editorial Note
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